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Course Syllabus

Master 2020/2021

Foresight

Type: Compulsory course (Governance of Science, Technology and Innovation)
Area of studies: Management
Delivered by: Department of Educational Programmes
Where: Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge
When: 1 year, 4 module
Mode of studies: offline
Instructors: Alexander Chulok, Ozcan Saritas, Alexander Sokolov
Master’s programme: Governance of Science, Technology and Innovation
Language: English
ECTS credits: 6
Contact hours: 64

Course Syllabus

Full SyllabusAsk Question

Abstract

Foresight is the Art and Science of anticipating and shaping the future. It is the first and key step of innovation in a fast changing world. A number of international organizations, national and regional governments as well as leading corporations have used Foresight to monitor trends, uncertainties, weak signals and wild cards; explore alternative futures under complexity and uncertainty; build future visions; identify key scientific and technological areas; develop new products and services; and recommend policies and strategies. This course aims to theoretical background as well as quantitative and qualitative methods like horizon scanning, big data analysis, scenario planning, prioritization, Delphi surveys, strategic and technological roadmaps among the others. The course will involve practical and hands on sessions to allow students to gain practical experience by ‘learning by doing’.
Learning Objectives

Learning Objectives

  • This course aims to provide an overview of Foresight and Strategic Planning. The course introduces several key approaches used both in Foresight and Strategic Planning in a complementary stance, including methods for scanning environments, identifying trends and drivers of change with weak signals and wild cards, developing future scenarios and visions and making long, medium and short term strategic plans for identifying priorities and actions. During the course, innovative ways of decision-making and STI policy formulation; STI strategy- and priority-setting; and cooperation and networking with stakeholders will be introduced. Through seminars, students will also be provided with practical experience in designing Foresight and Strategic Planning processes for public and private organizations.
Expected Learning Outcomes

Expected Learning Outcomes

  • Ability to build necessary theory, argumentation and practice of using Foresight and Strategic planning at the national, regional and corporate levels
  • Ability to use quantitative and qualitative approaches, processes and methods in a practical case study
Course Contents

Course Contents

  • Introduction to the course
    Basic guidelines and requirements of the course. Schedule and deadlines. Academic control. Criteria for written papers evaluation.
  • Background, rationales and key concepts for Foresight and Strategic Planning
    Introduction to Foresight and Strategic Planning. Rationales of Foresight and Strategic Planning. Key concepts and approaches in Foresight and Strategic Planning.
  • Objectives and Processes of Foresight and Strategic Planning
    Uses of Foresight and Strategic Planning. Foresight in the STI policy processes. Strategic Planning in corporate management processes. Key functions and roles of Foresight and Strategic Planning.
  • Quantitative and Qualitative methods for Foresight and Strategic Planning
    Methodology for STI Policy Foresight and Strategic Planning. Key quantitative and qualitative methods for Foresight and Strategic Planning.
  • Gathering Intelligence for emerging trends, technologies and markets
    Competitive, technology and market intelligence and trend monitoring. Identification of emerging and disruptive technologies. Planning for emerging technologies.
  • Planning alternative futures and scenarios
    Processes of scenario planning and vision development. Case examples on selected scenarios and vision building processes. Positioning of scenarios in STI strategy and policy making processes.
  • Priority setting and strategy development
    Assessment and prioritization of alternative STI strategies. Approaches and methods used for the prioritization process. Roadmapping for action plan development.
  • Generating outputs and outcomes from Foresight and Strategic Planning
    Generating outputs and outcomes of Foresight and Strategic Planning. Evaluating Foresight and Strategic Planning studies.
  • Linking Foresight and Strategic Planning to Policies and Actions
    Linking Foresight to decisions, strategies and policies. Embedding Foresight and Strategic Planning in organisations. Creating a culture of Foresight and Strategic Planning.
Assessment Elements

Assessment Elements

  • non-blocking Final exam
    The exam is planned online on ZOOM Platform, held with ONLINE PROCTORING technologies: Examus Platform (https://hse.student.examus.net). A Student should log in 20 minutes prior to Exam Session. Examus system can be tested in advance. Computer should meet the technical requirements: https://elearning.hse.ru/data/2020/05/07/1544135594/Технические%20требования%20к%20ПК%20студента.pdf) Before the Examination: a student should log into the Examus System, test the system, switch on the cam and the micro, identify oneself by the passport (!). During the examination a student is not allowed to use any other internet-resources, communicate to the others. Temporary internet breakdown is for up to 10 min. If longer - a written request to the course director, cc study office manager for further decision to reschedule the Exam for another date for examination: with different exam questions.
  • non-blocking Presentation
  • non-blocking Home Assignment
  • non-blocking Final exam
    The exam is planned online on ZOOM Platform, held with ONLINE PROCTORING technologies: Examus Platform (https://hse.student.examus.net). A Student should log in 20 minutes prior to Exam Session. Examus system can be tested in advance. Computer should meet the technical requirements: https://elearning.hse.ru/data/2020/05/07/1544135594/Технические%20требования%20к%20ПК%20студента.pdf) Before the Examination: a student should log into the Examus System, test the system, switch on the cam and the micro, identify oneself by the passport (!). During the examination a student is not allowed to use any other internet-resources, communicate to the others. Temporary internet breakdown is for up to 10 min. If longer - a written request to the course director, cc study office manager for further decision to reschedule the Exam for another date for examination: with different exam questions.
  • non-blocking Presentation
  • non-blocking Home Assignment
Interim Assessment

Interim Assessment

  • Interim assessment (4 module)
    0.4 * Final exam + 0.3 * Home Assignment + 0.3 * Presentation
Bibliography

Bibliography

Recommended Core Bibliography

  • Loveridge, D. (2009). Foresight : The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future. New York: Routledge. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=234423
  • Miles, I., Saritas, O., & Sokolov, A. (2016). Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation. Switzerland: Springer. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=nlebk&AN=1242395
  • Ringland, G. (2006). Scenario Planning : Managing for the Future (Vol. 2nd ed). Chichester, England: Wiley. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=492786
  • Simerson, B. K. (2011). Strategic Planning: A Practical Guide to Strategy Formulation and Execution : A Practical Guide to Strategy Formulation and Execution. Santa Barbara, Calif: Praeger. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=362938
  • Sørgaard Jørgensen, Dingli, S. M., & Borch, K. (2013). Participation and Interaction in Foresight : Dialogue, Dissemination and Visions. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=495658

Recommended Additional Bibliography

  • Daim, T. U., Chiavetta, D., Porter, A. L., & Saritas, O. (2016). Anticipating Future Innovation Pathways Through Large Data Analysis. Switzerland: Springer. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=1231713
  • Meissner, D., Gokhberg, L. M., & Sokolov, A. (2013). Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future : Potentials and Limits of Foresight Studies. Berlin: Springer. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=586015
  • Saritas, O., & Nugroho, Y. (2012). Mapping issues and envisaging futures: An evolutionary scenario approach. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, (3), 509. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsrep&AN=edsrep.a.eee.tefoso.v79y2012i3p509.529