Master 2022/2023

Foresight Theory and Concepts

Category 'Best Course for Broadening Horizons and Diversity of Knowledge and Skills'

Category 'Best Course for New Knowledge and Skills'

Type: Compulsory course (Science, Technology and Innovation Management and Policy)

Area of studies: Management

Delivered by: Department of Educational Programmes

Where: Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge

When: 1 year, 3 module

Mode of studies: offline

Open to: students of one campus

Instructors: Alexander Chulok, Ozcan Saritas, Alexander Sokolov

Master’s programme: Governance of Science, Technology and Innovation

Language: English

ECTS credits: 3

Contact hours: 32

Course Syllabus

Abstract

Foresight is the art and science of anticipating and shaping the future. It is the application of systemic, participatory, future-intelligence-gathering, and medium to long-term vision building process to informing present-day decisions and mobilizing joint actions. With growing complexities and uncertainties in our world, Foresight has become a first and key step of innovation.

Learning Objectives

• To introduce the concept of Foresight, its theoretical background as well as the process, and approaches.
• Quantitative and qualitative methods like horizon scanning, big data analysis, scenario planning, prioritization, Delphi surveys, strategic and technological roadmaps among the others will be introduced through the course.
• During the course, innovative ways of decision-making and STI policy formulation; STI strategy- and priority-setting; and cooperation and networking with stakeholders will be discussed.

Expected Learning Outcomes

• Ability to build necessary theory, argumentation and practice of using Foresight and Strategic planning at the national, regional and corporate levels
• Ability to use quantitative and qualitative approaches, processes and methods in a practical case study
• Ability to devote resources to long term management strategies and collaboration with research base for improving management concepts (ILO PC-1)
• Able to independently make informed organizational and managerial decisions, assess their operational and organizational effectiveness and social significance, ensure their implementation in a complex (including cross-cultural) and dynamic environment.
• Ability to assess and review company strategy implementation and develop and monitor measures to reach strategic objectives.

Course Contents

• 1. Introduction to the course
• 2. Background, rationales, and key concepts for Foresight
• 3. Initiating Foresight: Objectives and Processes of Foresight
• 4. Foresight Methodology: Quantitative and Qualitative methods for Foresight
• 5. Scanning: Gathering Intelligence for emerging trends, technologies and markets
• 6. Scenarios and Alternative Futures: Planning alternative futures and scenarios
• 7. Formulating visions and priorities: Priority setting and strategy development
• 8. Generating outputs and outcomes from Foresight
• 9. Linking Foresight and Strategic Planning to Policies and Actions
• 10. Evaluation of the Impact of Foresight

Assessment Elements

• Presentation
  An oral presentation of the practical Foresight study performed as a group of students
• Home Assignment
  Performed by each student individually
• Final control
  Written exam (60 minutes multiple choice exam + a short essay)

Interim Assessment

• 2022/2023 3rd module
  0.4 * Final control + 0.3 * Presentation + 0.3 * Home Assignment

Bibliography

Recommended Core Bibliography

• Loveridge, D. (2009). Foresight : The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future. New York: Routledge. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=234423
• Miles, I., Saritas, O., & Sokolov, A. (2016). Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation. Switzerland: Springer. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=nlebk&AN=1242395
• Simerson, B. K. (2011). Strategic Planning: A Practical Guide to Strategy Formulation and Execution : A Practical Guide to Strategy Formulation and Execution. Santa Barbara, Calif: Praeger. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=362938
• Sørgaard Jørgensen, Dingli, S. M., & Borch, K. (2013). Participation and Interaction in Foresight : Dialogue, Dissemination and Visions. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=495658

Recommended Additional Bibliography

• Daim, T. U., Chiavetta, D., Porter, A. L., & Saritas, O. (2016). Anticipating Future Innovation Pathways Through Large Data Analysis. Switzerland: Springer. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=1231713
• Meissner, D., Gokhberg, L. M., & Sokolov, A. (2013). Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future : Potentials and Limits of Foresight Studies. Berlin: Springer. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=586015
• Ringland, G. (2006). Scenario Planning : Managing for the Future (Vol. 2nd ed). Chichester, England: Wiley. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=492786
• Saritas, O., & Nugroho, Y. (2012). Mapping issues and envisaging futures: An evolutionary scenario approach. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, (3), 509. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsrep&AN=edsrep.a.eee.tefoso.v79y2012i3p509.529

Authors

• SARITAS OZCAN -
• Ильясова Дильнара Маратовна