Магистратура
2020/2021
Теория и практика проведения макроэкономической политики
Статус:
Курс по выбору (Экономика: исследовательская программа)
Направление:
38.04.01. Экономика
Кто читает:
Департамент теоретической экономики
Где читается:
Факультет экономических наук
Когда читается:
2-й курс, 1, 2 модуль
Формат изучения:
без онлайн-курса
Прогр. обучения:
Экономика: исследовательская программа
Язык:
английский
Кредиты:
5
Контактные часы:
60
Course Syllabus
Abstract
Course “Theory and practice of macroeconomic policy” consists of three parts. The first part is devoted to the discussion of the main problems of macroeconomic policy. The second part of the course deals with the peculiarities of macroeconomic policy in monetary unions. The last part of the course studies the macroeconomic policy regimes. The main emphasis will be made on the current tendencies in macroeconomic policy throughout the world, especially on communication policies in different countries. The Russian macroeconomic policy will be widely discussed.
Learning Objectives
- to present the main current macroeconomic problems
- to describe the role of government and central banks in the economy
Expected Learning Outcomes
- to understand the role of fiscal and monetary policy
- be able to analyze financial and real data, apply the macroeconomic tools for the analysis of both monetary and financial sphere
- be able to acquire the necessary skills to discuss different macroeconomic problems, the fiscal and monetary authorities’ actions and decisions, the consequences of macroeconomic policy changes for the economy
Course Contents
- Introduction. The main objectives of macroeconomic policyInflation as policy target. Social costs and benefits of inflation. Sacrifice ratio. Optimal inflation level. Target output level. Optimal and natural output. Exchange rate policy. Exchange rate and real variables. Exchange rate policy as an anti-inflation measure.
- Part 1. The main problems of macroeconomic policy. Lecture 2. InflationMonetary factors of inflation. Unpleasant monetary arithmetic. Fiscal theory of price level. Dynamic inconsistency of low-inflation policy. The role of reputation and delegation of policy. Policy rules. The role of central bank’s independence. Inflation persistence. Hyperinflations and stabilization programs.
- Part 1. Lecture 3. Zero-lower boundZLB and monetary policy efficiency. The origins of liquidity traps. The role of exchange rate policy. Unconventional monetary policy: targets and instruments. Fiscal policy at ZLB. The role of strategic interaction between a central bank and a government.
- Part 1. Lecture 4. Currency crisesExchange rate crises. First-, second- and third-generation models of currency crises. Monetary policy during exchange rate crises.
- Part 1. Lecture 5. Government debtGovernment debt as a fiscal instrument. The role of a central bank’s independence. The structure of government debt. Tax smoothing as a factor of debt accumulation. The model of government debt accumulation. The role of uncertainty. Debt crises. The model of sovereign debt default with self-fulfilling prophecies (Cole, Kehoe). Stabilization policy.
- Part 2. The economics of monetary unions. Lecture 6. Between international openness and monetary sovereigntyA simple model of a monetary union. Theory of optimum currency areas. Currency unions in prospect and retrospect.
- Part 2. Lecture 7. Monetary policy in currency unionsThe role of idiosyncratic shocks in monetary unions. Policy effects. The optimal monetary policy in a monetary union.
- Part 2. Lecture 8. Fiscal policies in currency unionsPublic deficits, transfers and public debts in currency unions. Federal fiscal transfer rules in monetary unions. Imbalances and fiscal policy in a monetary union.
- Part 2. Lecture 9. Fiscal federalism or intergovernmental cooperation?Regional fiscal policy spillovers in a monetary union. Cooperation and commitment. Symbiosis of monetary and fiscal policies in a monetary union. Federal fiscal transfers in monetary unions. Fiscal federalism versus fiscal cooperation.
- Part 2. Lecture 10. Thoughts of a fiscal unionFiscal union desirability. Fiscal union in Europe: pros and cons. ComPact and Maastricht comemorandum.
- Part 3. The evolution and the current state of macroeconomic policy. Lecture 11. Monetary policy regimesDiscretion versus commitment policy. Taylor rule and its evolution. Advantages and disadvantages of policy rules. Exchange rate regimes. Monetary base and interest rate as policy intermediate targets. Inflation targeting: introduction.
- Part 3. Lecture 12. Inflation targetingStrict and flexible inflation targeting. The role of expectations. Inflation targeting in advanced economies. Forward guidance as an instrument of inflation targeting. Inflation targeting in developing countries. The optimal design of inflation targeting. The role of communication policy.
- Part 3. Lecture 13. Communication policy of central banksThe role of public and private information for agents’ actions. Strategic complementarity. The impact of a central bank’s verbal interventions on forecasts’ precision and market volatility. Central bank transparency: pros and cons. The model of Morris and Shin (2002). Verbal interventions and financial crises. Information policy of central banks in practice: the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of Russia, etc.
- Part 3. Lecture 15. New challenges to macroeconomic policyPeculiarities of the global financial crisis of 2008. Shadow banking sector. Macroprudential policy. Unconventional monetary policy. Quantitative and qualitative easing. Policy response to covid-19 shock.
- Part 3. Lecture 14. Optimal policy under uncertaintyModel uncertainty. Robust monetary policy. Robustness criteria. Attenuation effect of optimal policy. Information asymmetry. Policy actions as the source of information. Reputation as commitment device.
Assessment Elements
- Average mark for quizzes
- Attendance
- EssayThe essay is to be prepared after the second part of the course. The essay is the critical literature overview at a chosen topic. Max length of the document is 5 pages (appendices and covers not included)
- ExamThe written documentation for the excuse is to be presented to the Students’ Office in accordance with the HSE’s rules.
