Международная политика и конфликты в странах Ближнего Востока и Северной Африки

2023/2024

Лучший по критерию «Полезность курса для расширения кругозора и разностороннего развития»

Статус: Маго-лего

Кто читает: Департамент зарубежного регионоведения

Когда читается: 3, 4 модуль

Охват аудитории: для всех кампусов НИУ ВШЭ

Преподаватели: Бакланов Андрей Глебович

Язык: английский

Кредиты: 6

Контактные часы: 64

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Abstract

The situation in the Middle East, acute conflict situations, including in the zone of the Palestinian-Israeli confrontation, have a great impact on the entire system of international relations, the state of world trade and economic relations, transport and logisticsinfrastructure.A substantive knowledge of the nature, essence, dynamics and consequences of conflict and crisis situations in the Middle East is an important part of the training of specialists in international relations and regional studies.The course is practice-oriented and gives students the opportunity to explore the realities of the region, the specifics of thedecision-making process on determining the course of the MENA states and the leading powers of the world on conflict and crisissituations in the Middle East.The course is largely based on the personal experience of the author, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary A.G. Baklanov,his acquaintance with political figures and diplomats involved in the drafting of the foreign policy course of these countries.Professor A.G. Baklanov, who organized the first student situational game seminar in our country (MGIMO, 1976), will conducta number of additional classes with students, including an imitation game.He will also conduct practical classes to instill in students the skills of writing reference and analytical materials according to thecriteria adopted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.Professor A.G.Baklanov, who is an Associate Fellow within the Global Fellowship Initiative of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP), a member of the Russian delegation in the Russian-American High-level expert group on the Middle East and a memberof the Russian-Saudi analytical "Hakhimov Club", will share exclusive information on the problems of the Middle East.

Learning Objectives

1. The course combines competencies in the field of international relations and regional studies. The purpose of the course is to give students a deepunderstanding of the nature, causes, history of conflict and crisis situations in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA region), the current state of affairs, the most likely modalities of further developments and the impact of these situations on the overall international climate. The course is of the exclusive character. The author, who has worked in the countries of the region for more than 50 years, will share with the students unique photographs and documents that allow a better understanding of the atmosphere, the "spirit" of the events. Materials from the Archive of the Russian Foreign Ministry and the British State Archives (Public Records) will also be used. The course will help students to develop an understanding of the peculiarities of the formation of national states in the MENA region, the establishment of borders between them. The nature of ethnic and religious contradictions between these countries will be analyzed.
2. Students will get a clear understanding of the nature of the states of the region, the characteristic features of the formation and implementation of their course in international and regional affairs, the influence of the personal factor on the development of interstate relations, the behavior of leaders, including in case of exacerbation of conflict and crisis situations.
3. Students will acquire practice-oriented competencies in understanding how representatives of the countries of the region prepare and conduct negotiations, how they develop and come to compromise solutions, how they interact and balance between different states, transnational structures, centers of power and influence within the states of the Middle East.
4. The course provides for students an opportunity to learn the key issues of the Arab-Israeli confrontation, the achievements of the Madrid peace process, as well as the reasons for the stagnation of negotiations on the Israeli-Palestinian and Syrian-Israeli tracks. The course will discuss the prerequisites and prospects for establishing direct political, financial and economic relations between Israel and a number of Arab countries, including the Persian Gulf region states. The reasons for the sharp aggravation of the situation in the zone of the Palestinian-Israeli confrontation in October 2023, in the waters of the Red Sea and in the region as a whole will be considered.
5. The course will give an idea of the nature and extent of the influence on the regional situation of the world's largest powers and regional states. The importance of such a factor as a more active "entry" into the region of the People's Republic of China will be shown. Students will get a real understanding of the "battle" for water and other resources unfolding in the region, possible formats of negotiation efforts aimed at preventing the emergence of a "new generation" of conflicts and crises in the Middle East and North Africa region.
6. The reasons for the rise in the activity of radical, terrorist elements in the region will be considered. The real history of the emergence and elimination of ISIS will be described, as well as personal considerations on possible options for the anti-terrorist struggle in the coming period.
7. Students will be presented with balanced and "linked"; to the realities of the region information about the conflicts in the Palestinian lands, in Yemen, Syria, Libya, Iraq, the dynamics and interaction of factors of regional and international scale, their impact on conflicts. in some countries of the region.

Expected Learning Outcomes

Obtaining skills in analyzing current events, preparing practice-oriented analytical materials corresponding to the "Foreign Ministry" samples, presentation skills.
Competence to understand complex conflict situations in the Middle East, to assess the impact of this factor on the possibility of expanding relations between the Russian Federation and the countries of the region.
Active familiarization with the methods of conducting situational analyses, the use of these methods to understand the dynamics of events in conflict situations in the Middle East and North Africa.
The ability to promptly analyze the development of events in the MENA region, including cases of exacerbation of conflict and crisis situations.
The ability to conduct a discussion with the most effective use of available information, the ability to forecast the nature of the discussion, to ensure that potentially useful information is received and systematized in advance.

Course Contents

1. The concept of the Middle East and North Africa region.
2. Water scarcity in the MENA region, zoning of water sources.
Ethno-confessional features of the region, the origins of conflicts on national and religious grounds.
MENA countries and the new international political and economic order.
Extremism and terrorism in the Middle East, the origins of the problem and current trends.
Armed forces of the countries of the region: a factor of mutual deterrence or destabilization of the regional situation?
The arms race in the MENA region. Problems of arms procurement.
The Arab-Israeli confrontation: the main "rift" in the region. Historical aspects, the role of external actors, the United Nations, other international and regional organizations.
Arab-Israeli conflicts: assessment of the outcome and impact on the development of region.
Plans and proposals to solve the problems of the Arab-Israeli confrontation.
Changes in the world and the region at the turn of the 1990s.
The aggravation of the situation on Palestinian lands.
Russian proposals on the formation of a security system in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East.
Israeli-Palestinian contacts, the Oslo - 1 and Oslo - 2 agreements.
The American strategy for the "democratization" of the Greater Middle East. The Arab Spring.
The Syrian conflict. The phenomenon of the "Islamic State"
Features of the conflict in Iraq and Libya.
New trends in the regional situation in the Middle East at the turn of the 2020-s, agreements between Israel and a number of Arab States.

Assessment Elements

The grade for the final exam
Class attendance and discussion
Activity at seminars, quality of presentations and participation in additional optional classes.

Interim Assessment

2023/2024 4th module
0.4 * Activity at seminars, quality of presentations and participation in additional optional classes. + 0.3 * Class attendance and discussion + 0.3 * The grade for the final exam

Bibliography

Recommended Core Bibliography

Aoudé, I. G. (2019). Conflict over Oil and Gas in the Mediterranean: Israeli Expansionism in Lebanon. Arab Studies Quarterly, 41(1), 95–110. https://doi.org/10.13169/arabstudquar.41.1.0095
Černý, K., & Jones, P. (2017). Instability in the Middle East : Structural Changes and Uneven Modernisation 1950-2015. Charles University in Prague, Karolinum Press.
Charles R. Lister. (2015). The Syrian Jihad : Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State and the Evolution of an Insurgency. Oxford University Press.
Ganguly, S. (2018). The Future of ISIS : Regional and International Implications. Brookings Institution Press.
Hashim, J. (2019). To Be or Not To Be: Sudan at Crossroads : A Pan-African Perspective. Mkuki Na Nyota Publishers.
Mehran Kamrava. (2018). Troubled Waters : Insecurity in the Persian Gulf. Cornell University Press.
Water Security in the Middle East : Essays in Scientific and Social Cooperation. (2017). Anthem Press.
Zeinab Abul-Magd. (2017). Militarizing the Nation : The Army, Business, and Revolution in Egypt. Columbia University Press.

Recommended Additional Bibliography

Assaf Moghadam. (2017). Nexus of Global Jihad : Understanding Cooperation Among Terrorist Actors. Columbia University Press.
Gurses, M. (2018). Anatomy of a Civil War : Sociopolitical Impacts of the Kurdish Conflict in Turkey. University of Michigan Press.
Hill, C. (2011). Trial of a Thousand Years : World Order and Islamism. Hoover Press.
Makdisi, S. (2017). Reflections on the Arab Uprisings. International Development Policy. https://doi.org/10.4000/poldev.2280
Mustapha Kamel El-Sayed, & Rasha Soheil Mansour. (2017). Water Scarcity as a Non-traditional Threat to Security in the Middle East. India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs, 2, 227.
Peter Krause. (2017). Rebel Power : Why National Movements Compete, Fight, and Win. Cornell University Press.
Robin Yassin-Kassab, & Leila Al-Shami. (2018). Burning Country : Syrians in Revolution and War: Vol. New edition. Pluto Press.

Authors

BAKLANOV Andrei GLEBOVICH

Course Syllabus