Магистратура 2023/2024

Теории и концепции форсайта

Лучший по критерию «Полезность курса для расширения кругозора и разностороннего развития»

Статус: Курс обязательный (Управление в сфере науки, технологий и инноваций)

Направление: 38.04.02. Менеджмент

Кто читает: Департамент образовательных программ

Где читается: Институт статистических исследований и экономики знаний

Когда читается: 1-й курс, 3 модуль

Формат изучения: без онлайн-курса

Охват аудитории: для своего кампуса

Преподаватели: Соколов Александр Васильевич, Чулок Александр Александрович

Прогр. обучения: Управление в сфере науки, технологий и инноваций

Язык: английский

Кредиты: 3

Контактные часы: 32

Course Syllabus

Abstract

Foresight is the art and science of exploring and shaping the future. It is the application of systemic, participatory, future-intelligence-gathering, and medium to long-term vision building process to informing present- day decisions and mobilizing joint actions. With growing complexities and uncertainties in our world, Foresight has become a first and key step of innovation.

Learning Objectives

• To form students' understanding of the basics Foresight and Strategic Planning in a complementary stance, including methods for scanning environments, identifying trends and drivers of change with weak signals and wild cards, developing future scenarios and visions and making long, medium and short term strategic plans for identifying priorities and actions.
• To introduce the concept of Foresight, its theoretical background as well as the process, and approaches; quantitative and qualitative methods like trend watching, horizon scanning, big data analysis, scenario planning, prioritization, Delphi surveys, strategic and technological roadmaps; innovative ways of decision-making and STI policy formulation; STI strategy- and priority-setting; cooperation and networking with stakeholders.

Expected Learning Outcomes

• Ability to build necessary theory, argumentation and practice of using Foresight and Strategic planning at the national, regional and corporate levels
• Ability to use quantitative and qualitative approaches, processes and methods in a practical case study
• Ability to devote resources to long term management strategies and collaboration with research base for improving management concepts (ILO PC-1)
• Able to independently make informed organizational and managerial decisions, assess their operational and organizational effectiveness and social significance, ensure their implementation in a complex (including cross-cultural) and dynamic environment.
• Ability to assess and review company strategy implementation and develop and monitor measures to reach strategic objectives.

Course Contents

• Introduction to the course
• Background, rationales, and key concepts for Foresight
• Initiating Foresight: Objectives and Processes of Foresight
• Foresight Methodology: Quantitative and Qualitative methods for Foresight
• Scanning: Gathering Intelligence for emerging trends, technologies and markets
• Scenarios and Alternative Futures: Planning alternative futures and scenarios
• Formulating visions and priorities: Priority setting and strategy development
• Generating outputs and outcomes from Foresight
• Linking Foresight and Strategic Planning to Policies and Actions
• Evaluation of the Impact of Foresight

Assessment Elements

• Final control
  Written exam (60 minutes multiple choice exam + a short essay)
• Presentation
  An oral presentation of the practical Foresight study performed as a group of students
• Home Assignment
  Performed by each student individually

Interim Assessment

• 2023/2024 3rd module
  0.4 * Final control + 0.3 * Home Assignment + 0.3 * Presentation

Bibliography

Recommended Core Bibliography

• 9783319325743 - Miles, Ian; Saritas, Ozcan; Sokolov, Alexander - Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation - 2016 - Springer - https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=1242395 - nlebk - 1242395
• Foresight for science, technology and innovation, Miles, I., 2016
• Loveridge, D. (2009). Foresight : The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future. New York: Routledge. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=234423
• Simerson, B. K. (2011). Strategic Planning: A Practical Guide to Strategy Formulation and Execution : A Practical Guide to Strategy Formulation and Execution. Santa Barbara, Calif: Praeger. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=362938
• Sørgaard Jørgensen, Dingli, S. M., & Borch, K. (2013). Participation and Interaction in Foresight : Dialogue, Dissemination and Visions. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=495658

Recommended Additional Bibliography

• Daim, T. U., Chiavetta, D., Porter, A. L., & Saritas, O. (2016). Anticipating Future Innovation Pathways Through Large Data Analysis. Switzerland: Springer. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=1231713
• Meissner, D., Gokhberg, L. M., & Sokolov, A. (2013). Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future : Potentials and Limits of Foresight Studies. Berlin: Springer. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=586015
• Ringland, G. (2006). Scenario Planning : Managing for the Future (Vol. 2nd ed). Chichester, England: Wiley. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=492786
• Saritas, O., & Nugroho, Y. (2012). Mapping issues and envisaging futures: An evolutionary scenario approach. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, (3), 509. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsrep&AN=edsrep.a.eee.tefoso.v79y2012i3p509.529

Authors

• Терегулова Адель Анваровна
• Saritas Ozdchan