Life Expectancy in Russia Increases
By 2050, global life expectancy is set to increase by 4.6 years. In Russia, women's life expectancy is forecast to rise from 77 years in 2022 to 82 years by 2050, while men's life expectancy is likely to increase from 68 to 75 years. This is according to a study by an international team of scientists, including Professor Vasily Vlassov from the HSE Faculty of Social Sciences. The study was published in The Lancet.
The international research team assessed cause-specific mortality and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries. Life expectancy at birth indicates the average number of years a person can expect to live if the mortality rate observed in a given calendar year remains constant throughout their life. Healthy life expectancy represents the average number of years a person can expect to live in full health, without diseases or injuries leading to disability.
The analysis was conducted under scenarios such as ‘Safe Environment,’ ‘Improved Child Nutrition and Vaccination,’ and ‘Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks,’ while considering several indicators: years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), life expectancy, and healthy life expectancy (HALE). This study can be used for policy development and long-term healthcare investments, planning, and prioritisation.
The authors forecast that global life expectancy will rise by 4.6 years by 2050: from 76 to 80 years for women and from 71 to 76 years for men. In Russia, the projected increase is from 77 to 82 years for women, and from 68 to 75 years for men.
However, scientists emphasise that this forecast does not account for unpredictable natural and social catastrophes. Events such as the COVID-19 pandemic can significantly alter global trends. Ischemic heart disease, stroke, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease are mentioned as the most common causes of death worldwide by 2050.
Researchers also note that by 2050, the overall global population growth will significantly slow down, though remain high in some of the world's poorest regions. In the coming decades, the highest population growth rates will be mainly observed in parts of sub-Saharan Africa.
Our baseline scenario suggests that the global age-standardised burden of disease and life expectancy will steadily improve until 2050, albeit at a slower pace than in the decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (starting from 2020). This will be primarily due to a reduction in mortality from cardiovascular diseases and respiratory infections.
Vasily Vlassov
Professor of the Faculty of Social Sciences, HSE University